If you haven't been paying attention to the news tonight...

"ttyymmnn" (ttyymmnn) 01/02/2020 at 23:30 • Filed to: None

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...you probably should. The US took out a top Iranian general in Iraq. This is a very serious escalation of Iran-US tensions.

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someassemblyrequired > ttyymmnn 01/02/2020 at 23:37

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This is not going to end well - there are few adversaries that could bring the fight to the Continental US. Iran is one who has the capability to make 9/11 look like a field day. Very stupid move, considering the IRGC are pretty much cell based, and have distributed leadership.

Right now my hopes are on common sense prevailing within Iranian leadership to prevent WW3, and I don’t like that much.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > ttyymmnn 01/02/2020 at 23:38

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Let alone US I raqi relations

fintail > ttyymmnn 01/02/2020 at 23:39

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I remember reading some 1980s/cold war-era WW3 scenarios, and some started the effective end of civilization with the US and Iran getting into it. Just sayin.

facw > ttyymmnn 01/02/2020 at 23:41

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It’s shocking. We just got things calmed down over there, and they decide they’re going to assassinate a prominent Iranian general in Iraq? It’s an act of war against two countries simultaneously. Not that war with us is in anyone’s interest, but it has potential to make things really messy, really quickly.

RallyWrench > ttyymmnn 01/02/2020 at 23:48

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Well, then. WW3 should be fun.

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > ttyymmnn 01/02/2020 at 23:50

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welp...the elections are nearing...

and nato is pretty much falling apart...the us might be on its own for this one if it escalates

we’re still pretty sore bout those weapons of mass destruction from last time

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > ttyymmnn 01/02/2020 at 23:52

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Thoughts are with military people and their families

f86sabre > ttyymmnn 01/02/2020 at 23:54

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The world is a complex place and things happen . When folks who follow the region as part of their work start utterly freaking out that has to tell the rest of us something. The Iranians are many things, but they are not dumb. I don’t mean that in a “they will turn the other cheek” way either. I expect that they will make us feel this one.

I would also be very curious to see who the big winners and losers are on the world markets tomorrow. I’m convinced that several of the key leaders in the east and west are making a fortune by creating political uncertainty which then drives the markets.  It would be fascinating to see who shorted or sold off oil companies, airlines, shipping companies in the last few days.

NKato > ttyymmnn 01/02/2020 at 23:59

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If the US had actionable intelligence indicating an impending attack on diplomatic missions, then they were justified in El Fucko’s liquidation.

That guy was responsible for the rocket attack on the joint US-Iraqi base using militia assets that are supposed to be for Iraqi interests. So this rocket attack was in fact Iran's biggest mistake. 

ttyymmnn > f86sabre 01/03/2020 at 00:02

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Oil already went up 4%. That’s making somebody’s portfolio look a lot better.

NKato > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 01/03/2020 at 00:03

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It went into the shitter the minute they let militias posing as protesters get too close to the embassy.

facw > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/03/2020 at 00:03

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NATO being a defensive alliance, we really shouldn’t expect you guys to come to our defense if we mess things up like this. Pretty sure any response from Iran or Iraq short of a attack against non government civilians outside Iraq would be justified, and shouldn’t trigger A rticle 5. NATO also only covers attacks in Europe, North America, and the North Atlantic.

If Iran did something like sink a US carrier, that would be a dumb move on their part, as the US military would steamroll them in response, but it shouldn’t give cause to demand other countries join us in that.  

ttyymmnn > NKato 01/03/2020 at 00:04

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I’m not saying the guy was an angel. But this is kind of like Iran assassinating a member of the Joint Chiefs. 

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > facw 01/03/2020 at 00:17

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fair points

tbh... that straight being a major oil route we might still choose to get involved voluntarily..... the spice must flow

self interest is a hellova thing

im expecting a lot of feet dragging about it tho (if it comes to that)

shop-teacher > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 00:27

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Fuck.

ttyymmnn > shop-teacher 01/03/2020 at 00:29

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“The brutality and stupidity of American terrorist forces in assassinating Commander Soleimani ... will undoubtedly make the tree of resistance in the region and the world more prosperous,” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a statement.

atfsgeoff > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 00:30

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We’ll just have to wait and see what the blowback is.

Trump is a lot of things, but I don’t think he’s stupid enough to order a foreign general killed in a third party state without at least a couple of well-informed advisors giving him the go-ahead.

MrDakka > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 00:32

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Lolwut? That’s pretty rich coming from a country that’s all about fighting in various conflict zo nes with only foreign militias and terrorist groups.

Pot calling the kettle black

ttyymmnn > MrDakka 01/03/2020 at 00:34

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I don’t disagree. 

MrDakka > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 00:35

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Its a new decade and time for a new war. Let’s get that military industrial comp lex in   high gear. I need more money

ttyymmnn > atfsgeoff 01/03/2020 at 00:38

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I hope you’re right. I mean, Soleimani wasn’t there to review the troops. He was there to run the operation against the US. And in that regard, I guess he was a legitimate target. But it’s also like assassinating a member of the Joint Chiefs. It just brings us one step closer to open war.

ttyymmnn > MrDakka 01/03/2020 at 00:39

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It’s also an election year. You wouldn’t want to change presidents in the middle of a war, would you? Hell, FDR served 4 terms. 

MrDakka > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 00:40

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Not just oil, the defense contractor companies' share prices are all up

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > shop-teacher 01/03/2020 at 00:40

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My thoughts exactly. Why not do some CIA spy Shit and have his plane accidentally crash.

atfsgeoff > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 00:42

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The United States has forgotten what war really is. To us, a conflict with Iraq or Iran would just be a “police action” that does not materially threaten the U.S. as a whole. This is the complacency that will eventually bite us in the ass. Maybe not this time, but it will eventually lead us to bite off more than we can chew, or at least more than we want to.

ttyymmnn > MrDakka 01/03/2020 at 00:43

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ttyymmnn > atfsgeoff 01/03/2020 at 00:44

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And I have a 17-year-old son.

atfsgeoff > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 00:49

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If it’s any consolation, I very much doubt that a conflict with Iraq or Iran would turn into another Vietnam unless Russia or China decides to back them.

ttyymmnn > atfsgeoff 01/03/2020 at 00:49

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I know. We aren’t there. Yet. I’ve also got two 14-year-old sons. 

MrDakka > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 00:53

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He’s going b eat the Iranians just like he’s going to beat impeachment. 

fintail > MrDakka 01/03/2020 at 00:53

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Amusing that the last legit decent GOP leader warned us about that complex.  His counterparts of the past 40 or so years have been bought and paid for by it.

ttyymmnn > MrDakka 01/03/2020 at 00:58

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His beating impeachment is a forgone conclusion. Now that we are coming into the new year, and the public has largely forgotten about impeachment, it’s going to be very hard for the Dems to ratchet up support for it, especially when we are dealing with such a significant rise in tensions with  Iran.

NKato > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 01:11

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Yes...? Your point being? 

ttyymmnn > NKato 01/03/2020 at 01:12

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It is a massive escalation of tensions.

phenotyp > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 02:03

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So the plan is: attack the guy with the plans to attack, thus guaranteeing attacks.

Good plan.

So, I guess we kick off the decade with another decades-long war.

Fuck.

Jayvincent > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 03:43

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mostly brought to you by the “Busy Beaver Button Museum” which brings up a whole ‘nother line of questions

Jayvincent > atfsgeoff 01/03/2020 at 03:58

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keeping in mind who the CIC is for at least the next 12 months, I expect this will escalate quickly... my thoughts :

- our NATO partners will not back any US-led escalation due to recent insults from said CIC

- Russia and China will be in a bidding war to back the Iranian play, both to tie up US interests away from other areas and to secure cheap Iranian oil

- Iran will retaliate, probably by taking out a US ship or three in the straights (they practiced a feint attack last week with 18 small boats)

- our CIC will not take a measured approach or act under advisement once fighting begins, so I foresee the use of tactical nukes before the ele ction

T he “good news” for us littles is this will likely not be a land war and therefore no troop draft . And some very rich people will get richer and more powerful.

Jayvincent > NKato 01/03/2020 at 04:03

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I was shocked to see we even had an embassy. Have we learned nothing since 1979 ?

atfsgeoff > Jayvincent 01/03/2020 at 04:04

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I put the likelihood of nukes getting used in any ensuing Iran/Iraq conflict at 0.0001%

Cé hé sin > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 04:48

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The Iranians aren't going to just ignore this. I do hope that Mr Trump sends his thoughts and prayers to the families and friends of any of his people who pay the price for this.

M.T. Blake > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 05:22

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Better start brushing up on Farsi. 

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 06:03

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One idly wonders whether your Presidents early statements about getting the US out of all of these regional conflicts were thought bubbles based on political expediency.

The recent evidence suggests so.

I look forward to a new decade of this ‘missile diplomacy’ from the US . Like ‘Twitter democracy’, it may have it s moments.

My bird IS the word > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 07:09

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Dude was in a country he was not supposed to be in, directly supporting a militia attacking us servicemembers. You cant get any more justified than that.

What happened to plausable deniability

My bird IS the word > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 08:34

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Its like if schwarzkopf went into iran and started buddying up with anti iranian militia forces. Not really an assasination. More like an extra-judicial killing.

My bird IS the word > RallyWrench 01/03/2020 at 08:37

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I give ww3 another 20 years. China isnt yet in a stable position to initiate that.

kanadanmajava1 > facw 01/03/2020 at 09:12

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Trum p seems to be very eager to have a war with Iran. But h e has been insulting people all around the world. I don’t think he has many friends to join with his war . Most of Israel probably thinks now that he’s the best US president ever. If Iran is smart with their (very likely) upcoming retaliations they are very careful not to touch any possible US allies.

But all of this sounds like a Tom Clancy book that has ( again) evil US president that wants to have his own war and get re-elected as a war hero.

DipodomysDeserti > facw 01/03/2020 at 09:18

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Where in the world did you hear things had calmed down in Iraq? They’ve been having deadly protests for months, and ISIS has been making a comeback. If anything it’s been ratcheting up quite a bit over the last few years, hence why there was an Iranian general there.

DipodomysDeserti > f86sabre 01/03/2020 at 09:21

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Check out the book Shock Doctrine. Was recommended to me by a friend after he returned from a few tours in Iraq back in 2008.

DipodomysDeserti > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 09:22

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Pretty rich coming from Iran, whose only hope is to destabilize their own region and in order to keep oil prices high.

DipodomysDeserti > Jayvincent 01/03/2020 at 09:33

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The embassy in question was in Iraq, not Iran.

We do not have an embassy in Iran.

DipodomysDeserti > My bird IS the word 01/03/2020 at 09:34

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Who’s gonna buy all their shit? If anyone initiates WWIII it’ll be us, as some sort of last ditch effort to remain a sol e super power.

BahamaTodd > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 01/03/2020 at 09:43

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Like this?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/02/asia/taiwan-helicopter-crash-intl-hnk/index.html

DipodomysDeserti > fintail 01/03/2020 at 09:43

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That’s actually a crazy fundamentalist Christian  end of times prophecy. Has to do with the book of Daniel. One of the reasons why Evangelicals have such a hard on for attacking Iran. 

My bird IS the word > DipodomysDeserti 01/03/2020 at 10:51

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China is trying to float their economy until they don't "need" us. Idk if such a thing is even possible these days, but im not an economist.

DipodomysDeserti > My bird IS the word 01/03/2020 at 11:15

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China’s ambitions are all based on tangible things, which make them a little easier to deal with. With religious leaders in Iran (and some of our own nutcases here), their ambitions are based on made up religious prophecies. They actually want to start WWIII because they think it’ll bring Mahdi/Jesus  back to Earth.

DipodomysDeserti > fintail 01/03/2020 at 11:32

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Defense contractors are bipartisan in their efforts. Trump was one of their least favorite candidates.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/2016-election-defense-military-industry-contractors-donations-money-contributions-presidential-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-republican-ted-cruz-213783

DipodomysDeserti > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 01/03/2020 at 11:34

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Well, we did know what vehicle the second most powerful person in the country was cruising around in, and were able to incinerate him via drone.  That’s some impressive spy shit.

Galileo Humpkins (aka MC Clap Yo Handz) > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 11:41

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I’m sure we’ve all seen this in some form by now...but...

DipodomysDeserti > someassemblyrequired 01/03/2020 at 11:49

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Iran’s economy has been in shambles for a while and they’ve been combating insurrections at home for over a decade. We just dropped a missile, via drone, on the second most powerful person in the natio. They most definitely could not bring an actual fight to the US. While horrible, 9/11 is nothing compared to what the US military has, and can do, to other nations. We threw an entire region of the world into turmoil, which has lasted decades, in a matter of weeks, and are no worse for wear.

fintail > DipodomysDeserti 01/03/2020 at 12:11

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I can believe they embrace it. T he nutjob fundies no doubt love war of any kind - as long as the sons of the rich are kept out of it, of course. More of their ethos of life having value so long as it is in the womb, the party of chickenhawks.

However, I think there is some logic behind it too , I will have to find the original source data. If the US and Iran get into it, Russia won’t be able to help itself, and in this darkest dumbest timeline, China would probably like to get involved as well. 

fintail > DipodomysDeserti 01/03/2020 at 12:12

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I suspect a lot of industries behave that way.  It’s like betting on both sides in a war - no matter the result, you win.

I think historically, they have been rewarded much more by the chickenhawk GOP. It’ll be hard to top having a de facto war criminal like Cheney as second in command.

ttyymmnn > Galileo Humpkins (aka MC Clap Yo Handz) 01/03/2020 at 12:12

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I hadn’t seen that. Thanks.

someassemblyrequired > DipodomysDeserti 01/03/2020 at 12:18

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Yeah, about that:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/14/hezbollah-isnt-just-in-beirut-its-in-new-york-too-canada-united-states-jfk-toronto-pearson-airports-ali-kourani-iran/

Galileo Humpkins (aka MC Clap Yo Handz) > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 12:34

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There is always a tweet, or sound bite, or quote, or something with this guy.

My bird IS the word > DipodomysDeserti 01/03/2020 at 13:04

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True. I still think we would get in a war with china due to authoritarian and liberal societies being fundamental enemies.

functionoverfashion > Galileo Humpkins (aka MC Clap Yo Handz) 01/03/2020 at 14:15

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It’s quite remarkable, actually. It’s a study in hypocrisy, and of just how far you can take denying facts, quotes, and video evidence. I guarantee if you confronted him with the above, he’d deny having said it, or written it.   

DipodomysDeserti > someassemblyrequired 01/03/2020 at 15:01

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About what? As the article details, we’ve already been fighting these guy’s proxies going on twenty years now. Our buddies, the Israelis, even longer.

someassemblyrequired > DipodomysDeserti 01/03/2020 at 15:33

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The dude was a terrible person - but this could have looked like an accident or the responsibility of Shiites in Iraq. Being open about it was a stupid tactical error that will likely cost many US lives - either through terror or conflict in the ME.

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > DipodomysDeserti 01/03/2020 at 16:08

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My point is make is less oblivious like an assassination by the US and more like an accident.

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > BahamaTodd 01/03/2020 at 16:09

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Exactly. 

Galileo Humpkins (aka MC Clap Yo Handz) > functionoverfashion 01/03/2020 at 16:09

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100% for sure he would, and he’d follow it with a nonsensical diatribe about how recent actions weren’t to start a war and had nothing to do with re-election or anything else. Then he’d tangent into electoral college or crowd sizes, or who knows what the fuck.

DipodomysDeserti > someassemblyrequired 01/03/2020 at 19:52

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Since the Iranians are also Shiites, and the most powerful ally of Iraqi Shiites, it certainly would have confused everyone if we tried to blame it on them.

They hit him with a drone strike, so it most likely happened this way because that was the only chance they were gonna get.

DipodomysDeserti > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 01/03/2020 at 19:53

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Yeah, but its the Iranians, they would have blamed us anyways.

Jayvincent > DipodomysDeserti 01/03/2020 at 20:32

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you are technically correct (the best kind of correct!) but when you have Iranian militia led by an I ranian general attacking your embassy in Iraq, the difference may be moot

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 01/03/2020 at 20:40

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I understand why people question if the Americans have a plan

I don’t understand why people are sad a contemporary version of Himmler is dead.

someassemblyrequired > DipodomysDeserti 01/03/2020 at 21:37

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Oops yeah - that would have been the double secret probation of targeted assassinations.  Where are Uday and Qusay when you need them? 

I just don’t think this guy was worth the repercussions when there’s likely dozens like him waiting in the wings . I think it was a stupid risk, but we shall see.

DipodomysDeserti > Jayvincent 01/03/2020 at 21:51

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Seeing as said general is now dead via drone strike, I’d say the difference  is  pretty stark.

facw > DipodomysDeserti 01/04/2020 at 08:15

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I meant that the embassy was no longer under siege.